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Russian disinformation campaigns

Alina Polyakova asks What do Russian disinformation campaigns look like, and how can we protect our elections?:

As technological capabilities progress, the threat of political warfare is becoming an even more serious threat to democratic elections. David M. Rubenstein Fellow Alina Polyakova analyzes past disinformation campaigns and political warfare tools employed by hostile foreign actors in Russia and elsewhere. She also discusses how these tactics are influencing U.S. midterm and other elections and what the U.S. can do to protect its electoral system.

  • One of the goals of Russian information warfare is to create a society in which we can’t tell the difference between fact and fiction.
  • The Russian government is becoming more sophisticated in mastering the tools of political warfare for the digital age. This includes the use of bots, trolls, microtargeting to spread disinformation.
  • The strategies are not new but the digital tools are.
  • Over the next few months we are going to see more disinformation campaigns, including fake websites that work together as a network to spread disinformation, fake personalities and entities on Twitter and Facebook, and manipulation of social media networks’ algorithms, including Google, YouTube, and others. And we’re not really paying enough attention to algorithmic manipulation.
  • The more frightening development that we are likely to see in the next 12-16 months is the use of artificial intelligence to enhance the tools of political warfare.

Film: Tuesday, October 9th, 12:30 PM @ Seniors in the Park, Victoria and Abdul

This Tuesday, October 9th at 12:30 PM, there will be a showing of Victoria and Abdul @ Seniors in the Park, in the Starin community building:

Victoria and Abdul (biography, drama, romance, history)
Tuesday, October 9, 12:30 pm
Rated PG-13. 1 hour, 51 min. (2017)

In 1887, when Abdul Karim, an Indian clerk in his twenties, comes to Queen Victoria’s Golden Jubilee, he stays long after and develops a close and sometimes controversial friendship with the aging queen (portrayed by Dame Judi Dench). A BBC Film production that garnered nominations for Best Actress, Set and Costume Designs.

One can find more information about Victoria and Abdul at the Internet Movie Database.

Enjoy.

Daily Bread for 10.8.18

Good morning.

 Monday in Whitewater will see scattered thunderstorms with a high of eighty-one.  Sunrise is 7:01 AM and sunset 6:23 PM, for 11h 22m 09s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 3.6% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Planning Commission is scheduled to meet at 6:30 PM.

On this day in 1871, the Peshtigo Fire sweeps across over a million acres in Wisconsin:

On this date Peshtigo, Wisconsin was devastated by a fire which took 1,200 lives. The fire caused over $2 million in damages and destroyed 1.25 million acres of forest. This was the greatest human loss due to fire in the history of the United States. The Peshtigo Fire was overshadowed by the Great Chicago fire which occurred on the same day, killing 250 people and lasting three days. While the Chicago fire is said to have started by a cow kicking over a lantern, it is uncertain how the Peshtigo fire began.

Recommended for reading in full — Another conservative leaves the Republican party, junk science in the service of Kavanaugh, Kasparov explains protests, Fox News won’t die away, and video of a diver riding a baby whale  —

 Conservative Tom Nichols writes Why I’m Leaving the Republican Party (“The Kavanaugh confirmation fight revealed the GOP to be the party of situational ethics and moral relativism in the name of winning at all costs”):

The Republicans, however, have now eclipsed the Democrats as a threat to the rule of law and to the constitutional norms of American society. They have become all about winning. Winning means not losing, and so instead of acting like a co-equal branch of government responsible for advice and consent, congressional Republicans now act like a parliamentary party facing the constant threat of a vote of no-confidence.

That it is necessary to place limitations, including self-limitations, on the exercise of power is—or was—a core belief among conservatives. No longer. Raw power, wielded so deftly by Senator Mitch McConnell, is exercised for its own sake, and by that I mean for the sake of fleecing gullible voters on hot-button social issues so that Republicans may stay in power. Of course, the institutional GOP will say that it countenances all of Trump’s many sins, and its own straying from principle, for good reason (including, of course, the holy grail of ending legal abortion).

Politics is about the exercise of power. But the new Trumpist GOP is not exercising power in the pursuit of anything resembling principle, and certainly not for conservative or Republican principles.

Free trade? Republicans are suddenly in love with tariffs, and now sound like bad imitations of early 1980s protectionist Democrats. A robust foreign policy? Not only have Republicans abandoned their claim to being the national-security party, they have managed to convince the party faithful that Russia—an avowed enemy that directly attacked our political institutions—is less of a threat than their neighbors who might be voting for Democrats. Respect for law enforcement? The GOP is backing Trump in attacks on the FBI and the entire intelligence community as Special Counsel Robert Mueller closes in on the web of lies, financial arrangements, and Russian entanglements known collectively as the Trump campaign.

Avi Selk describes The junk science Republicans used to undermine Ford and help save Kavanaugh:

In days leading up to the confirmation vote, the same notion was implicit in the rationale of every senator who attempted to defend Kavanaugh without wholly dismissing Ford’s accusations — her vivid testimony that he pinned her to a bed and tried to rape her when they were teens in the 1980s:

  • “I believe that she is a survivor of a sexual assault and that this trauma has upended her life,” said Susan Collins (R-Maine), who gave Kavanaugh his crucial 50th vote.
  • “Something happened to Dr. Ford; I don’t believe the facts show it was Brett Kavanaugh,” said Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), the only Democrat to support the nominee.
  • “That would get me off the hook of having to make a hard decision,” said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), one of Kavanaugh’s most loyal defenders. “I don’t know if this is a case of mistaken identity.”

It’s easy to forget that less than three weeks ago, when the mistaken-identity theory was first formulated, it was so widely ridiculed that a pundit who advanced it on Twitter subsequently apologized and offered to resignfrom his job. But for many cognitive researchers who study how memories actually form during traumatic events, the theory never stopped sounding ridiculous.

“The person lying on top of you — who she’d previously met — you’re not going to forget that,” said Richard Huganir, a neuroscientist at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. “There’s a total consensus in the field of memory … If anything, fear and trauma enhances the encoding of the memory at a molecular level.”

As he and several other researchers told The Washington Post, being attacked floods the brain with chemicals, including norepinephrine, which helps people remember whatever they are focused on. (Ford, a psychologist herself, even mentioned it in her testimony.)

Kasparov explains protests:

Maxwell Tani writes Why Fox News Will Never Die (“The past two years saw the network weather a host of sexual harassment scandals and boycotts—and yet it’s emerged stronger than ever”):

In many ways, Trump built his campaign on the main programming themes that Fox News has run for years: the perceived victimization of conservatives by the left and the media.

Charlie Sykes, a longtime conservative radio host, noted that the scandals and boycotts haven’t hurt Fox because the network understands it will stay in business by “tending to and feeding the tribe.”

“Fox followed their audience into full-on Trumpism, making themselves into a safe space for the right,” Sykes said. “The scandals don’t hurt Fox for the same reasons that Trump’s scandals and lies don’t seem to hurt him. Fox is a reflection of this new political culture as much as they are its creator.”

“The audience/base don’t care as long as they own the libs.”

A Diver Rides a Curious Baby Whale:

Daily Bread for 10.7.18

Good morning.

 Sunday in Whitewater will see afternoon showers with a high of fifty-six.  Sunrise is 6:59 AM and sunset 6:24 PM, for 11h 25m 00s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 3.6% of its visible disk illuminated.

At 12:30 PM today, Whitewater will hold its 28th annual Crop Hunger Walk. The walk begins at Fairhaven Senior Services, 435 W Starin Road and ends at Whitewater’s Old Armory, 146 W. North Street.  Registration Time is 12:30 PM at Fairhaven, and the walk will begin at 1 PM, with walking distances of one or three miles.

On this day in 1774, Wisconsin becomes part of Quebec:

On this date Britain passed the Quebec Act, making Wisconsin part of the province of Quebec. Enacted by George III, the act restored the French form of civil law to the region. The Thirteen Colonies considered the Quebec Act as one of the “Intolerable Acts,” as it nullified Western claims of the coast colonies by extending the boundaries of the province of Quebec to the Ohio River on the south and to the Mississippi River on the west.

Recommended for reading in full — It’s a myth that economic anxiety drove the bulk of the Trump vote, Lindsey Graham as a sad story, Susan Collins as a sham maverick,  Facebook gives away users’ contact information, and a video visit to a place of 2,000 temples —

John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck debunk Five myths about the 2016 election:
MYTH NO. 4
Trump’s victory was due to economic anxiety.

One particular rationale for Trump’s victory came to the fore immediately after the election: He “tapped into the anger of a declining middle class,” as Bernie Sanders put it, with a message that appealed to “people [who] are tired of working longer hours for lower wages.” The journalist David Cay Johnston concurred: “Trump won because many millions of Americans, having endured decades of working more while getting deeper in debt, said ‘enough.’?”

But the evidence is clear: Both in the Republican primaries and in the general election, white voters’ attitudes about African Americans, Muslims and immigration were more closely associated with how they voted than were any strictly economic concerns. In fact, racial attitudes were the prism through which voters thought about economic outcomes — something we call “racialized economics.” For example, after Obama became president, attitudes toward blacks suddenly became linked with people’s views on the economy: the less favorable their view of blacks, the less favorable their view of the economy. Scholars who did extensive interviews with whites in Youngstown, Ohio, and rural Louisiana reported many racially loaded statements about economic circumstances. One Youngstown factory worker said people who received government assistance had “gold chains and a Cadillac, when I can barely afford a Cavalier.”

During the 2016 campaign, the most potent political sentiment held that “people like me” were not getting ahead because of “people like them.” In the primary race, for example, support for Trump among white Americans was weakly associated with whether people were worried about losing their jobs but strongly associated with whether people believed that employers were giving jobs to minorities instead of whites. In the general election, the belief that split Trump and Clinton supporters was not whether “average Americans have gotten less than they deserve.” Majorities of both groups agreed. Instead, the dividing line was whether they thought “blacks have gotten less than they deserve”: Fifty-seven percent of Clinton supporters agreed, but only 12 percent of Trump supporters did.

Frank Bruni contends Lindsey Graham Is the Saddest Story in Washington (“His fight for Brett Kavanaugh completed his transformation into Donald Trump’s slobbering manservant”):

That’s Senator Lindsey Graham you see at the head of the pack. That’s Graham you hear talking and talking and talking some more, in committee rooms and on stages and before the television cameras that he rushes to the way a toddler chases soap bubbles. His words are whichever ones guarantee a major role and a powerful patron, which means that these days he sounds like a more articulate echo of his golfing buddy: Donald Trump.

That wouldn’t, by itself, be cause to dwell on him. Washington is lousy with lackeys, and not even the maddest of kings thins their ranks.

But Graham is special. He really is. I can’t think of another Republican whose journey from anti-Trump outrage to pro-Trump obsequiousness was quite so illogical or half as sad, and his conduct during the war over Kavanaugh completed it. For the president he fought overtime, he fought nasty and he fought without nuance.

Jennifer Finney Boylan writes Susan Collins Is the Worst Kind of Maverick (“She votes with the most right-wing members of her party, even while attempting to occupy some imaginary moral high ground”):

There’s another kind of “maverick,” though — the kind of centrist who wants to please everyone. For Ms. Collins, it’s often meant voting with the most right-wing members of her party, even while attempting to occupy some imaginary moral high ground. It’s hard to see what our senator got for her vote supporting the tax cut last fall. It’s just as hard for me to see her vote for Judge Kavanaugh as anything other than a warm embrace of Donald Trump and everything he stands for, her 45-minute speech notwithstanding.

Two years ago, in an op-ed in The Washington Post, she said she would not be voting for him: “I revere the history of my party, most particularly the value it has always placed on the worth and dignity of the individual, and I will continue to work across the country for Republican candidates. It is because of Mr. Trump’s inability and unwillingness to honor that legacy that I am unable to support his candidacy.”

And yet, at some of the most crucial moments of Mr. Trump’s presidency, she has voted to empower him. In giving him a victory on Judge Kavanaugh, she has emboldened Mr. Trump to continue down the very path she claims to detest: denigrating women, bullying opponents, choosing the most combative approach to every disagreement. Based on the judge’s snarling, partisan, bullying demeanor at his hearing, Judge Kavanaugh seems determined to be the kind of justice who is exactly the opposite of that legacy she once spoke of preserving.

In so doing, she has proved herself, in the end, to stand for nothing.

Kashmir Hill reports Facebook Is Giving Advertisers Access to Your Shadow Contact Information:

Giridhari Venkatadri, Piotr Sapiezynski, and Alan Mislove of Northeastern University, along with Elena Lucherini of Princeton University, did a series of tests that involved handing contact information over to Facebook for a group of test accounts in different ways and then seeing whether that information could be used by an advertiser. They came up with a novel way to detect whether that information became available to advertisers by looking at the stats provided by Facebook about the size of an audience after contact information is uploaded. They go into this in greater length and technical detail in their paper.

They found that when a user gives Facebook a phone number for two-factor authentication or in order to receive alerts about new log-ins to a user’s account, that phone number became targetable by an advertiser within a couple of weeks. So users who want their accounts to be more secure are forced to make a privacy trade-off and allow advertisers to more easily find them on the social network. When asked about this, a Facebook spokesperson said that “we use the information people provide to offer a more personalized experience, including showing more relevant ads.” She said users bothered by this can set up two-factor authentication without using their phone numbers; Facebook stopped making a phone number mandatory for two-factor authentication four months ago.

The researchers also found that if User A, whom we’ll call Anna, shares her contacts with Facebook, including a previously unknown phone number for User B, whom we’ll call Ben, advertisers will be able to target Ben with an ad using that phone number, which I call “shadow contact information,” about a month later. Ben can’t access his shadow contact information, because that would violate Anna’s privacy, according to Facebook, so he can’t see it or delete it, and he can’t keep advertisers from using it either.

Visit The Valley of 2,000 Temples:

Daily Bread for 10.6.18

Good morning.

 Saturday in Whitewater will see morning showers with a high of fifty-nine.  Sunrise is 6:58 AM and sunset 6:26 PM, for 11h 27m 52s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 17.4% of its visible disk illuminated.

 

On this day in 1917, Robert La Follette supports free speech in wartime:

On this date Senator Robert La Follette gave what may have been the most famous speech of his Senate career when he responded to charges of treason with a three hour defense of free speech in wartime. La Follette had voted against a declaration of war as well as several iniatives seen as essential to the war effort by those that supported U.S. involvement in the first World War. His resistance was met with a petition to the Committee on Privileges and Elections that called for La Follette’s expulsion from the Senate. The charges were investigated, but La Follette was cleared of any wrong doing by the committee on January 16, 1919.

Recommended for reading in full — The present-day limits of women’s political influence, Trump smears assault survivors, Grassley implies women are lazy, attacks on Pope Francis, and video on a different kind of fission reactor 

Peter Beinart writes America Is Finally Listening to Women. It’s Sparking a National Crisis. (“Women are now powerful enough to disrupt the male-dominated consensus that in previous eras silenced them. But they are not yet powerful enough to get justice”):

Thursday’s hearings [Ford, Kavanaugh] do not reflect a Senate in decline. They reflect a Senate in crisis. That’s entirely different. The Kavanaugh hearings have thrown the Senate into crisis because women are now powerful enough to disrupt the amicable, male-dominated consensus that in previous eras silenced them altogether. But they are not yet powerful enough to get justice. That’s not just true in the Senate. That’s true in the nation as a whole.

The increase in partisan polarization, likewise, does not reflect a nation in decline. It reflects a nation in crisis because one political party is no longer totally dominated by white men—leading the other political party to more nakedly defend the privileges of white men. When women and people of color were less represented in either party, and white male privileges were thus less threatened, both found it easier to be civil. This isn’t a new story. American politics grew more tranquil after Reconstruction, once both parties agreed that Southern blacks should not be permitted to vote.

Reasonable people can question the way Senate Democrats handled Ford’s allegations when she first came forward. But the notion—which is attractive to people in the respectable center—that there was some calm, polite, collegial way to arbitrate her charges is a myth. They could have been buried calmly and politely. But they could not have been arbitrated calmly and politely, because Ford’s charges are dangerous. They’re dangerous to conservative hopes of achieving a majority on the Supreme Court, and they’re dangerous to the many powerful men whose careers would be ruined were they accountable for their abuse of women. Kavanaugh and the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee know that. And they have learned from President Trump that when women, or people of color, endanger your status, it doesn’t work to play nice.

Inae Oh writes Trump Smears Sexual Assault Survivors as “Elevator Screamers” Paid By George Soros:

After mocking Christine Blasey Ford earlier this week, President Donald Trump on Friday tweeted out a conspiratorial attack on the sexual assault survivors who have confronted Republican senators over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination, calling them “elevator screamers” and “paid professionals” bankrolled by billionaire George Soros.

….

The very rude elevator screamers are paid professionals only looking to make Senators look bad. Don’t fall for it! Also, look at all of the professionally made identical signs. Paid for by Soros and others. These are not signs made in the basement from love!

Paul Kane reports Grassley suggests absence of women on Judiciary due to committee’s heavy workload:

Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) told reporters that the Senate Judiciary Committee’s inability to attract Republican women might be caused by its heavy workload, a remark the panel’s chairman tried to retract a few minutes later.

“It’s a lot of work — maybe they don’t want to do it,” Grassley told the Wall Street Journal, NBC News and other outlets, as he headed toward the Senate floor for a speech by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).

Barbie Latza Nadeau describes The Plot to Bring Down Pope Francis:

Though Francis’ strategy of silence may have been meant to avoid dignifying Viganò’s claims with a response, it has mostly backfired because it was not a flat-out denial of the content of the letter [accusing Vatican leadership of awareness of particular incidents of sexual assault]. Conservatives have been able to sow seeds of uncertainty about Francis, as Robert Moynihan, editor of Inside the Vatican puts it in his recent editorial letter. “It does seem clear that the case has ‘parted the veil’ to reveal a profound struggle within the Catholic Church between factions in the Vatican and Church hierarchy, and outside of the Church, for ‘control of the narrative’ about what the Church is and what she believes,” he writes. “Victory in this larger battle requires victory in the smaller battle: control of how all these charges and counter-charges play out. It is clear that the battle ranges across a spectrum of issues and positions that sometimes seem very confused.

Viganò, who is quite possibly incognito somewhere in the United States since penning the poison letter, has been drip-feeding anti-Francis rhetoric through conservative websites and anti-Francis journalists, including new behind-the-scenes revelations about how the meeting between Francis and Kim Davis, the Kentucky county clerk who was held in contempt for not signing same sex marriage licenses, came to be and who lied when about what. Now, even those who are trying to defend Francis have been forced to admit that everyone lied about how that meeting transpired, despite the official statements from the Vatican at the time. Those close to Viganò say there is plenty more to come.

Though Francis may be silent, save a few homilies and public sermons his supportersare trying to channel into hidden messages, the plot continues to thicken. That’s especially true in the American Church, which has not only spawned one of Francis’s most fervent enemies in Cardinal Raymond Burke, who has found great support for his anti-Francis cause in American alt-right strategist Steve Bannon, but which has also given conservatives plenty of ammunition thanks to endemic clerical sex abuse and cover-ups that seemingly lead straight from the United States to Vatican City.

In particular, the damning Pennsylvania grand jury report that named more than 300 predator priests who victimized more than 1,000 children over seven decades in that state alone, produced one significant culprit: Cardinal Donald Wuerl. He is McCarrick’s successor as the archbishop of Washington, D.C. and he is a former ranking prelate in Pennsylvania, linking him to the two biggest scandals facing Francis right now.

How This Rare Natural Fission Reactor Could Solve Our Nuclear Waste Problem:

Disinformation Still Rampant

Years have passed, and yet the infection of Russian propaganda to undermine America’s democratic order by spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt still persists.

The Committee to Investigate Russia writes Disinformation Still Rampant Two Years Later

A new report finds most Twitter accounts that spread disinformation online during the 2016 campaign are alive and well and continuing to share phony information in spite of the tech company’s promises to crack down.

Washington Post:

With the congressional midterm elections just weeks away, the report prepared for the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, which supports research on journalism, the arts and other subjects, found that more than 80 percent of the Twitter accounts that it says frequently shared links to phony news reports during the 2016 election remain active. As a group, they publish more than a million tweets in a typical day.

Researchers also found that 65 percent of links to phony and conspiratorial news reports went to just 10 prolific websites — a finding that challenges claims that the creation of such content is too widespread and diffuse for technology companies to effectively combat.

“The fake news that matters is not organic, small-scale or spontaneous,” said the conclusion of the 60-page report. “Most fake news on Twitter links to a few established conspiracy and propaganda sites, and coordinated campaigns play a crucial role in spreading fake news.”

(…)

The researchers on the Knight Report — Matthew Hindman, an associate professor of media and public affairs at George Washington University, and Vlad Barash, science director at network analysis firm Graphika — examined what Twitter accounts were linking to more than 600 sites that “regularly publish unverified stories or flat-out falsehoods.”

(…)

While the authors found ample evidence of the importance of “bots” in the networks of disinformation they studied, they said accounts run by actual humans may have been even more important. One-third of the most heavily followed Twitter accounts that linked to phony news reports appeared to be bots, but more appeared to be humans.

These users who spread phony news reports on Twitter in some cases did so unwittingly, because they believed the reports, Barash said. He said that complicates efforts by Twitter and other technology platforms to combat the spread of the faulty information.

(…)

“Fake news isn’t hundreds of accounts, and [fighting it] isn’t Whack-a-mole,” Hindman said. “It’s a couple of dozen persistent sites that do this all day, every day.”

The report, because it has been prepared for a private client, has not gone through a formal peer-review process that would be routine for published academic work, but the authors said it has been informally reviewed by fellow academic experts.

In a post on Medium, the Knight Foundation highlights more of the report’s most significant findings. Among them are the following:

  • Fake news still receives significantly fewer links than mainstream media sources: Fake news sites received about 13 percent of the Twitter links that a comparison set of national news outlets did, and 37 percent of the links received by a set of regional newspapers.
  • Accounts that spread fake news are densely connected: Both the election-eve and post-election maps of accounts that spread fake or conspiracy news reveal an ultra-dense core of accounts that follow each other. As such, fake news that reaches the core has countless paths to spread.
  • The coordinated spread of misinformation by Russia’s Internet Research Agency (IRA) trolls is evident — but other accounts were likely more important in spreading fake news: Of the more than 2,700 IRA accounts named publicly when the research was conducted, 65 are included in at least one of the report’s maps. … Content with similar messaging was however tweeted by many other accounts with far more followers than top IRA trolls, as well as by still-active accounts that are likely automated.

The ReportDISINFORMATION, ‘FAKE NEWS’ AND INFLUENCE CAMPAIGNS ON TWITTER (Knight Foundation)

Fake-news ecosystem still thrives, two years after the 2016 election, new report says (WaPo)

Seven ways misinformation spread during the 2016 election (Knight Foundation via Medium)

Chinese Government Turns Against Foundation of China’s Own Prosperity

China, ruled by a one-party dictatorship, owes its increased influence in the world to the economic liberalization that has unleashed the energies of Chinese people.  The Party, however, lives not for its people but for itself, and now turns against the forces that created new happiness and greater autonomy for many millions, and toward greater control (and redistribution) to the advantage only of a powerful clique.

Li Yuan reports Private Businesses Built Modern China. Now the Government Is Pushing Back:

HONG KONG — The comments were couched in careful language, but the warning about China’s direction was clear.

China grew to prosperity in part by embracing market forces, said Wu Jinglian, the 88-year-old dean of pro-market Chinese economists, at a forum last month. Then he turned to the top politician in the room, Liu He, China’s economic czar, and said “unharmonious voices” were now condemning private enterprise.

“The phenomenon,” Mr. Wu said, “is worth noting.”

Mr. Wu gave rare official voice to a growing worry among Chinese entrepreneurs, economists and even some government officials: China may be stepping back from the free-market, pro-business policies that transformed it into the world’s No. 2 economy. For 40 years, China has swung between authoritarian Communist control and a freewheeling capitalism where almost anything could happen — and some see the pendulum swinging back toward the government.

State-controlled companies increasingly account for growth in industrial production and profits, areas where private businesses once led. China has stepped up regulation of online commerce, real estate and video games. Companies could face higher taxes and employee benefit costs. Some intellectuals are calling for private enterprises to be abolished entirely.

Daily Bread for 10.5.18

Good morning.

 Friday in Whitewater will be rainy with a high of fifty-seven.  Sunrise is 6:57 AM and sunset 6:28 PM, for 11h 30m 43s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 17.4% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1846, Wisconsin’s first constitutional convention meets:

On this date Wisconsin’s first state Constitutional Convention met in Madison. The Convention sat until December 16, 1846. The Convention was attended by 103 Democrats and 18 Whigs. The proposed constitution failed when voters refused to accept several controversial issues: an anti-banking article, a homestead exemption (which gave $1000 exemption to any debtor), providing women with property rights, and black suffrage. The following convention, the Second Constitutional Convention of Wisconsin in 1847-48, produced and passed a constitution that Wisconsin still very much follows today.

Recommended for reading in full — Rev. Dr. William Barber receives award, Nobel Peace Prize for work against sexual violence, Salk Lake Tribune blasts Orrin Hatch, states could seek restitution from Trump, and video on the evolution of Mark Hamill —

 Michelle Boorstein reports ‘Closest person we have to Martin Luther King Jr.’: Pastor-activist William J. Barber wins $625,000 ‘genius’ grant:

On Thursday, the day the Rev. William Barber Jr. was awarded a $625,000 “genius grant,” Barber was hard to reach, because he was being arrested. Which is related to why the North Carolina preacher was given one of the rare MacArthur Foundation awards.

Barber, 55, is one of the country’s best-known public advocates fighting racism and poverty, known for successfully organizing tens of thousands of people in marches and other nonviolent acts of civil disobedience around the country. On Thursday, as MacArthur was announcing that Barber was among 25 people “on the precipice of great discovery or a game-changing idea,” Barber’s Poor People’s Campaign was tweeting about his arrest.

“I’ve just been arrested in Chicago, and I’m waiting on their process,” he said in a call to the Raleigh News & Observer. “For minimum wage, in front of McDonald’s headquarters.”

“It doesn’t say rest on your laurels, but to keep on pushing. In this work, sometimes you get heavy criticism. People do say ugly things, ‘You just want money.’ I just want other people to have health care. You know, Jesus healed everybody and never charged a co-pay,” he told the paper.

Rukmini Callimachi, Jeffrey Gettleman, Nicholas Kulish, and Benjamin Mueller report Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad for Fighting Sexual Violence:

The 2018 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded on Friday to two campaigners against wartime sexual violence: Dr. Denis Mukwege, 63, a Congolese gynecological surgeon; and Nadia Murad, 25, who became the bold voice of the women who survived sexual violence by the Islamic State.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee said the two were given the award “for their efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict.”

Dr. Mukwege campaigned relentlessly to shine a spotlight on the plight of Congolese women, even after nearly being assassinated a few years ago. Ms. Murad, who was held captive by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, has told and retold her story of suffering to organizations around the world, helping to persuade the United States State Department to recognize the genocide of her people at the hands of the terrorist group.

[Read about the struggles of Dr. Mukwege and Ms. Murad, in their own words.]

In a year when the “Me Too” movement has turned the world’s attention to survivors of sexual assault and abuse, the Nobel Committee’s decision focused on the continuing global campaign to end the use of mass rape as a weapon in global conflict.

A Salt Lake Tribune editorial contends Hatch attack on alleged witness is despicable:

Apparently, a former TV weatherman from Washington, D.C., provided the committee with a sworn statement revealing, allegedly, some details about [Julie] Swetnick’s personal sexual preferences that are both none of anyone’s damn business and utterly irrelevant to the question of what Kavanaugh might or might not have done all those years ago.

In a sleazy nutshell, the story is that Dennis Ketterer claims that Swetnick approached him at a Washington bar one night and struck up first a conversation and then a brief relationship in which sex was discussed but never performed.

And, Ketterer said, Swetnick never said anything about seeing, knowing or being attacked by Kavanaugh.

Clearly, the only reason for any individual to say any of this, and the only reason for the committee to make it public, is the belief that any women who would approach a self-described fat man in a bar, any women who would choose to discuss sex, is some kind of libertine who, for that reason, cannot be trusted.

Adam Davidson explains How State Officials and Unpaid Taxes Could Force Trump to Liquidate Part of His Family Fortune:

Sean Shaw, the Democratic candidate for state attorney general in Florida, has a message for Donald Trump. If elected, Shaw will investigate the President’s financial activities across the Sunshine State. “We’ll pursue any area that is worthy of pursuit,” Shaw told me in an interview this week. “The charity not being charitable. Trump Mar-a-Lago and emoluments.” Shaw told me he would go “where the law takes me.” He plans to investigate whether “the President of the United States is personally profiting from the Presidency in Florida.”

Trump, of course, has several properties in Florida, including Mar-a-Lago, a private club that doubled its initiation fee after Trump was elected. Since Trump took office, three of its members have exerted sweeping influence on the Department of Veterans Affairs. Another member was named the U.S. Ambassador to the Dominican Republic. Shaw also said that he will investigate reports that a Trump-branded development project in Sunny Isles, Florida, bears hallmarks of possible money laundering. Shaw made clear that his investigations would be broad and open-ended: “They may lead you to tax returns, financial records. I don’t know where they lead. No one is above the law in Florida. No one. We are going to make it such that if I find bad stuff going on, we’re going to go where it takes us, no matter how big.”

One recent poll put Shaw just behind his Republican opponent, Ashley Moody, who has expressed support for President Trump. Even if Shaw loses, Trump may be vulnerable in several other states where he has done business. In New York, the Democratic candidate for attorney general, Letitia James, is all but assured a victory. James is promising Democratic voters that she will aggressively investigate the President. After this week’s stunning Times investigation alleged that the Trump Organization’s wealth was built, in large part, on a variety of complex tax schemes, many of which could be illegal.

The Evolution of Mark Hamill:

The Motivation of the Horde

Most people, in all times and places, are clever and intelligent. It’s simply false to contend that only a few people are sharp; society does – and only can – function through the capable participation of many.

At times in our own history, however, large numbers of our people have slipped into malevolence, in opposition to the better principles of our own culture. We’ve faced (and thankfully overcome) Tories, Know Nothings, Confederates, Copperheads, Klan, and Bund. The members of these dark movements were not of lesser intelligence than others; they were of lesser character. They were just as human, but less humane.

Now there is before us another threat. They are many, although they are not, and never will be, a national majority. (They see no rebuke in this, as they seek a herrenvolk, a sham democracy supporting only their own demographic ilk.)

Adam Serwer describes well the dark motivation of this movement, concluding that, for them, The Cruelty Is the Point (“President Trump and his supporters find community by rejoicing in the suffering of those they hate and fear”):

The Trump era is such a whirlwind of cruelty that it can be hard to keep track. This week alone, the news broke that the Trump administration was seeking to ethnically cleanse more than 193,000 American children of immigrants whose temporary protected status had been revoked by the administration, that the Department of Homeland Security had lied about creating a database of children that would make it possible to unite them with the families the Trump administration had arbitrarily destroyed, that the White House was considering a blanket ban on visas for Chinese students, and that it would deny visas to the same-sex partners of foreign officials. At a rally in Mississippi, a crowd of Trump supporters cheered as the president mocked Christine Blasey Ford, the psychology professor who has said that Brett Kavanaugh, whom Trump has nominated to a lifetime appointment on the Supreme Court, attempted to rape her when she was a teenager. “Lock her up!” they shouted.

….

The laughter undergirds the daily spectacle of insincerity, as the president and his aides pledge fealty to bedrock democratic principles they have no intention of respecting. The president who demanded the execution of five black and Latino teenagers for a crime they didn’t commit decrying “false accusations,” when his Supreme Court nominee stands accused; his supporters who fancy themselves champions of free speech meet references to Hillary Clinton or a woman whose only crime was coming forward to offer her own story of abuse with screams of “Lock her up!” The political movement that elected a president who wanted to ban immigration by adherents of an entire religion, who encourages police to brutalize suspects, and who has destroyed thousands of immigrant families for violations of the law less serious than those of which he and his coterie stand accused, now laments the state of due process.

This isn’t incoherent. It reflects a clear principle: Only the president and his allies, his supporters, and their anointed are entitled to the rights and protections of the law, and if necessary, immunity from it.

The millions in opposition and resistance, including those of us who are Never Trump, can expect a long and difficult struggle against this horde.

Of those of us from Never Trump, a group chiefly comprised from among true conservatives or libertarians, there is a particular fortitude against the mob, the mass, the horde: we have spent our lives contending for individual rights against majoritarian tyranny. We are grateful for all the talented many, of other ideologies, who form the largest part of resistance, but by education and disposition we who are truly libertarian are well-suited to standing against a horde. (Whatever deficiencies we may have, at least this we do well.)

In what we lawfully say, in what we lawfully do, in how we describe ourselves, and in the exercise of that opposition by time, place, and manner, we will go on (with our many friends) as a matter of necessity.

Daily Bread for 10.4.18

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of fifty-eight.  Sunrise is 6:56 AM and sunset 6:30 PM, for 11h 33m 35s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 25.9% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Landmarks Commission meets at 6 PM,  the Finance Committee also at 6 PM, (canceled), and there is a scheduled Fire Department board meeting at 6:30 PM.

On this day in 1957, the Space Age begins as the Soviet Union launches Sputnik 1 into a low Earth orbit.

 

Recommended for reading in full —  Trump-voting counties most affected by retaliatory tariffs,  American ambassador to  Estonia quits over lack of Trump support for small democracy threatened by Russia, Russian spies & hackers rigging Olympics, Wisconsin lawmakers to vote on corporate welfare after the election, and video of a freediver who reached new depths —

 Joseph Parilla and Max Bouchet ask (and answer) Which US communities are most affected by Chinese, EU, and NAFTA retaliatory tariffs?:

COUNTIES THAT VOTED FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP HAVE HIGHER RELIANCE ON TARIFF-AFFECTED EXPORTS

Trade policy is inextricably linked with politics, and the retaliatory tariffs seem geographically and industrially targeted to mobilize political angst. A county-level analysis reveals that, while a political diversity of places will be implicated, counties that voted for President Trump are more exposed to the tariffs, as measured by the share of exports in tariff-affected industries (8.1 percent) and the share direct and indirect jobs those exports support (8.1 percent). Comparatively, in counties that voted for Hillary Clinton, 4.2 percent of exports are in tariff-affected industries, which support about 3.2 percent of export jobs.

2017 share of exports and export-supported jobs in industries targeted by partners' retaliation, by county vote in the 2016 US presidential election

James D. Melville Jr. writes I stepped down as U.S. ambassador to Estonia. Here’s why:

This spring, I reached the point where I could no longer support President Trump’s policies and rhetoric regarding NATO, our European allies and Russia.

What do I believe? I am extremely uncomfortable with the trade policies the United States is pursuing. I also believe it is a historic mistake to cozy up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It is in the United States’ fundamental interests to champion a rules-based world order. After the dark years of World War II, we worked in accordance with our values to pursue, nurture and achieve a peaceful and prosperous world. The great global and transatlantic institutions — NATO, the United Nations and, to an extent that would surprise many of my fellow citizens, even the European Union — are the fruits of policies carried out and resources expended by the United States over decades.

The refusal of the United States to give up on Estonia’s independence through the entire Soviet occupation is the cornerstone of Estonians’ deep appreciation for America. But it is the values of our nation and the leadership and role we have played in protecting the democracies in Europe that give them the confidence to stand up to the genuine threats emanating from their eastern neighbor.

Ellen Nakashima, Michael Birnbaum, and William Booth report U.S. indicts Russian spies in hacking campaign linked to Olympics doping scandal:

The Justice Department on Thursday announced the indictment of seven Russian military spies on cyber hacking charges linked to the leaking of Olympic athletes’ drug-test data in an alleged attempt to undermine international efforts to expose Russian doping.

Four of the officers with Russia’ GRU military intelligence agency also were charged with targeting organizations probing Russia’s alleged use of chemical weapons, including the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain. Three were indicted in July for allegedly conspiring to interfere in the 2016 presidential election.

The indictment further exposes Moscow’s ongoing, widespread campaign to discredit western democracy and international institutions through disinformation and other measures. The aim, officials said, is to muddy or alter perceptions of the truth.

Laurel White reports Lawmakers To Vote After Election On $100M Tax Deal For Kimberly-Clark:
Freediver Breaks World Record For Deepest Dive, Reaching Over 350ft:

Majority of Walworth County’s Renters are Rent-Burdened

A new study, Paying the Rent, from the Wisconsin Policy Forum finds that a majority of Walworth County’s renters are rent-burdened, placing the county in the top five most distressed in the state by that measurement. (There are, of course, 72 counties in Wisconsin, so Walworth County is among the weakest of a very large group.)

The study defines being rent-burdened using a common definition: “[a] 30% rent-to-income (RTI) ratio is a standard used nationally to define housing affordability. Based on this standard, households can afford to spend up to 30% of their income on gross rent (contract rent plus utilities) and still cover other expenses. Those spending over 30% are considered “rent burdened.””

State, county, and local ‘development’ agencies have failed to make headway in the critical measure of individual and household incomes.

Expensive projects that still leave tens of thousands rent-burdened don’t represent community development at all.

See also Walworth County’s Working Poor.

The Theory of Moral Sentiments and the Morality of Markets

In Five myths about capitalism, Steven Pearlstein describes the primary myth as a misunderstanding about motivations of those choosing freely in the marketplace (broadly understood, these choices are about not only capital, but also labor or goods):

Myth No. 1: Greed, a natural human instinct, makes markets work.

Adam Smith, the father of economics, first pointed out in his most famous work, “The Wealth of Nations,” that in vigorously pursuing our own selfish interests in a market system, we are led “as if by an invisible hand” to promote the prosperity of others. Years later, Smith’s theme that capitalism runs on selfishness would find its most famous articulation in a speech by a fictional corporate raider, Gordon Gekko, in the movie “Wall Street”: “Greed . . . is good, greed is right, greed works.” (Defenders of free markets have been desperate to disown the “greedy” label ever since.)

Smith, however, was never the prophet of greed that free-market cheerleaders have made him out to be. In other passages from “The Wealth of Nations,” and in his earlier work, “The Theory of Moral Sentiments,” Smith makes clear that for capitalism to succeed, selfishness must be tempered by an equally powerful inclination toward cooperation, empathy and trust — traits that are hard-wired into our nature and reinforced by our moral instincts. These insights have now been confirmed by brain researchers, behavioral economists, evolutionary biologists and social psychologists. An economy organized around the cynical presumption that everyone is greedy is likely to be no more successful than one organized around the utopian assumption that everyone will act out of altruism.

Smith understood that free exchanges in the marketplace require a natural cooperative impulse.  He’s been proved right that the overwhelming number of people are oriented toward voluntary social cooperation, and it’s for this reason that a society organized around free exchange (rather than state or private coercion) works so productively.

It’s encouraging to see Pearlstein lead with this point. Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments (online and available at Amazon) reminds one that, despite imperfections in any human arrangement, from natural and worthy inclinations men and women cooperate voluntarily in the marketplace.

Consider, after all, how Smith begins this great work (Part First, Section I, Chapter I, Of Sympathy).  He begins not with an exaggerated notion of human greed, but with a realistic understanding of  human concern for others:

How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, except the pleasure of seeing it.

Upon some occasions sympathy may seem to arise merely from the view of a certain emotion in another person. The passions, upon some occasions, may seem to be transfused from one man to another, instantaneously, and antecedent to any knowledge of what excited them in the person principally concerned. Grief and joy, for example, strongly expressed in the look and gestures of any person, at once affect the spectator with some degree of a like painful or agreeable emotion. A smiling face is, to everybody that sees it, a cheerful object; as a sorrowful countenance, on the other hand, is a melancholy one.

Markets work so well because they rest, truly, on virtues.  A well-ordered society (although not all societies are such), free from government or factional manipulation, allows worthy traits to express themselves to the benefit of all.