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Author Archive for JOHN ADAMS

Pro-Trump Areas Worse Off Than Ever

Economics professor Anthony W. Orlando writes Is Trump country really better off under Trump? No. It’s falling further behind:

Two years have passed since Donald Trump made his famous campaign promise in disaffected regions across the country: “We are going to start winning again!” For many voters who felt that they had lost ground in recent decades, the candidate argued, a vote for him would be rewarded with renewed prosperity and prominence.

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By most measures, my latest research shows, Trump counties — and especially counties with higher proportions of Trump voters — continue to fall farther behind the rest of the country economically. The story of our economy, like the story of our politics, continues to be a story of division and divergence.

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Consider the stark differences in basic measures of local economic performance — employment and housing prices — between counties where the majority of votes were cast for Donald Trump and counties where the majority voted for Hillary Clinton. The average Clinton county employs seven to eight times as many workers as the average Trump county, with nearly double the market value per single-family home. In part, this difference reflects the higher population density of the urban areas, which voted disproportionately for Clinton. But as my analysis shows, it has been growing over time, as the Clinton counties outperform their Trump counterparts.

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Using a standard statistical technique called “difference-in-differences,” I estimate the difference between Trump and Clinton counties before and after the election and show whether the difference … differs. In other words, I look at whether the economic performance gap narrows. The answer: No. Statistically, there appears to be no significant improvement in job growth. The gap in housing price growth actually widens. In fact, the larger the Trump electorate and the larger the degree of Trump support, the worse the county’s economic performance.

See Orlando, Anthony W., Where’s the Winning? (October 16, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3267509 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3267509.

Daily Bread for 12.6.18

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be mostly sunny with a high of twenty-seven.  Sunrise is 7:11 AM and sunset 4:20 PM, for 9h 09m 12s of daytime.  The moon is new with 0.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Landmarks Commission meets at 6:00 PM.

On this day in 1884, a 100-ounce (2.83 kg) aluminum apex/lightning-rod tops, and so completes,  the Washington Monument’s construction.

On this day in 1821, Wisconsin’s first post office opens.

Recommended for reading in full:

  Mireya Solís writes Enjoy the Trump-Xi trade war truce while it lasts (“But brace for 2019”):

Moving back from the brink of a tariff spiral that would kill the chances of any bilateral talks is certainly good news. But what Trump and Xi have done is merely punt the ball on heated (and perhaps intractable) trade and investment negotiations to 2019. The structural negotiations highlighted above are supposed to move at a fast clip, with only a 90-day window to show substantial results or end the tariff ceasefire.

  Mark Follman observes The Mueller Investigation Grows More Ominous for Trump and His Inner Circle:

“The time that he can get away with lying to the American people all the time and evading accountability is coming to an end.”

That was one of several pointed remarks on Sunday from Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler, the incoming chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, as he spoke about Donald Trump and the latest revelations from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. In a plea deal made public on Thursday, the president’s former personal attorney Michael Cohen admitted to lying to Congress about the extent and duration of his boss’ efforts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow during the 2016 presidential campaign. “The fact that [Trump] was lying to the American people about doing business in Russia and that the Kremlin knew he was lying gave the Kremlin a hold over him,” Nadler said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “One question we have now is, does the Kremlin still have a hold over him because of other lies that they know about?”

  William Saletan writes Trump Is More Loyal to Dictators Than to the U.S.:

Trump’s perpetual dishonesty about U.S. intelligence is a threat to national security and American democracy. It’s also a manifestation of his fundamental disloyalty to the United States. Seven months ago, when Haspel was nominated to succeed Pompeo as CIA director, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner cautioned her about serving “a president who does not always seem interested in hearing, much less speaking, the truth.” Other Trump officials, Warner noted, had been “attacked for telling a truth in public that contradicts the White House narrative.” That’s the paradox of working in Trump’s CIA. The despot you have to manage is your own boss.

Why Do Fish Float Upside Down When They Die?:

The Incredible Shrinking Man

How very odd, truly, that even now Gov. Walker feels compelled to retweet a story from the MacIver Institute praising his tenure. (That organization’s motto –  ‘the free market voice for Wisconsin’ – is incredible: they’ve spent years boosting Walker’s corporate welfare and crony capitalism.  Walker’s shown no understanding of, or respect for, free-market economics.)

It’s part sad, part laughable that he has to reach all the way over to the MacIver Institute to find a publication to praise his tenure – there are few mainstream Wisconsin publications that will.

One has to be small and needy, and likely getting even smaller by the day, to retweet puff pieces on the way out.

Many Wisconsinites – even those of us opposed to @GovWalker – will be surprised at how quickly the state moves on emotionally from him.  His failures will still bedevil, but Walker will resemble the ex-spouse happily ditched and (mostly) put out of mind.

I am reminded of an expression my late father occasionally used at the departure of someone who would not be missed: ‘he’ll be someone else’s headache now.’

Walworth County Average or Below Average in Health of Residents, Influences Contributing to Health

Most of Whitewater sits within Walworth County, a county that ranks in Wisconsin’s bottom half for the overall health of its residents (‘ length and quality of people’s lives’) and average for the influences on health (‘individual health behaviors, social and economic conditions, access to healthcare and the quality of the physical environment’).  Malia Jones of WisContext asks Which Counties Rank Best For Health?  Here’s how Walworth County ranks:

(Jefferson County, in which a smaller part of Whitewater is situated, ranks far better, at 12 of 72 for health outcomes and 14 of 72 for health factors.)

Entire Trump tweet on immigrant aid is wrong

The Associated Press reports an [e]ntire Trump tweet on immigrant aid is wrong:

TRUMP’s retweet: “Illegals can get up to $3,874 a month under Federal Assistance program. Our social security checks are on average $1200 a month. RT (retweet) if you agree: If you weren’t born in the United States, you should receive $0 assistance.”

THE FACTS: Wrong country, wrong numbers, wrong description of legal status of the recipients. Besides that, immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally do not qualify for most federal benefits, even when they’re paying taxes, and those with legal status make up a small portion of those who use public benefits.

The $3,874 refers to a payment made in Canada, not the U.S., to a legally admitted family of refugees. It was largely a one-time resettlement payment under Canada’s refugee program, not monthly assistance in perpetuity, the fact-checking site Snopes found a year ago in debunking a Facebook post that misrepresented Canada’s policy. A document cited in the Facebook post, showing aid for food, transportation and other basics needs, applied to a family of five.

Apart from confusing Canada with the United States, the tweet distributed by the president misstated how much Americans get from Social Security on average — $1,419 a month for retired workers, not $1,200.

Overall, low-income immigrants who are not yet U.S. citizens use Medicaid, food aid, cash assistance and Supplemental Security Income aid at a lower rate than comparable U.S.-born adults, according to an Associated Press analysis of census data. Noncitizen immigrants make up only 6.5 percent of all those participating in Medicaid, for example.

(Emphasis added.)

Daily Bread for 12.5.18

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of thirty-three.  Sunrise is 7:10 AM and sunset 4:20 PM, for 9h 10m 15s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 2.9% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Parks and Rec Board meets at 5:30 PM.

On this day in 1879, the Humane Society of Wisconsin is organized.

 

 

Recommended for reading in full:

  Quinta Jurecic and Benjamin Wittes describe A Flynntriguing Sentencing Memorandum:

First, the document is chiefly interesting for what it doesn’t say. It doesn’t say that Flynn has breached his plea agreement and lied to investigators, as Mueller has said about Manafort. It doesn’t say that he failed to provide substantial assistance to the investigation, as Mueller said in the George Papadopoulos sentencing memorandum. It says, rather, that Flynn began cooperating early, that his early cooperation was important in encouraging other witnesses to be candid, and that he has provided substantial assistance to the probe in a number of areas.

Second, Flynn’s cooperation with federal authorities has been diverse and extensive. The document says he has met 19 times with the Special Counsel’s Office and other components. His cooperation appears to involve not merely the Russia probe but also other matters as well. Putting this point together with the absence of complaints about Flynn’s behavior, the affirmative statement that he has given substantial assistance, and the recommendation that he get as little as no jail time, the only conclusion is that Mueller has gotten everything he needs from Flynn.

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Third, because the addendum to the sentencing memo is mostly redacted, one is left reading tea leaves in the document’s redactions. Some of these are reasonably legible. It seems that Flynn is cooperating in at least three ongoing investigations: a criminal investigation about which all details are redacted; Mueller’s investigation into “any links or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald J. Trump”; and at least one additional investigation about which all information is redacted.

As BuzzFeed News’s Chris Geidner noted, it appears likely from the length of the redaction bar that the first criminal investigation is not a matter being conducted by the special counsel’s office—though, of course, it’s impossible to know for certain. Notably, however, the addendum does state that Flynn has “participated in 19 interviews with the SCO [Special Counsel’s Office] or attorneys from other Department of Justice [“DOJ”] offices,” which would be consistent with significant cooperation in a matter not under Mueller’s jurisdiction (emphasis added).

See Sentencing Memorandum and Addendum.

The Fall And Rise Of A Fearless Fox:

Once a Gerrymanderer…

Wisconsin, with a gerrymandered legislature and a crony capitalist, lame-duck governor, was never going to have an easy transition back to a tradition of democratically representative government and sound economic policy.  The men who engineered years of the wrong approach were never going to go gently to the political outer darkness that, deservedly, awaits them.

And yet, and yet, the underlying demographics in Wisconsin are unfavorable to the WISGOP.  They can inhibit these changes, but they cannot prevent them.

Governor-elect Evers promises that he “will take any steps possible” to prevent Republican lawmakers from removing key powers from his new administration.  (I supported Evers in this race, and one would have hoped – but not truly expected – that he would have had a fairer start than the WISGOP is giving him.  No doubt, he wasn’t looking for any of this, but a steady and firm response will do him well, and only increase his popularity with his fellow Wisconsinites.)

It’s worth noting that the WISGOP wants to change the WEDC’s board structure to increase the Republican majority’s control over it, but [e]ight former economic development directors tell lawmakers not to change job creation board (“If the head of WEDC isn’t a trusted, even central, part of the governor’s cabinet, the whole economic development enterprise will suffer”).

Indeed, the WISGOP’s efforts will only speed the collapse of the WEDC as an agency.

In any event, for Whitewater and other small towns, there are nests of state capitalist and ‘development’ men, hawking government spending for ‘tools,’ ‘partnerships,’ and ‘capital catalysts.’ These tools have been tried for years in Whitewater, and for it all we’re still a low-income economy.

No one, however, should have expected any less than the worst from this legislature’s gerrymanderers and this outgoing administration’s schemers.

The New Version of Old

One reads that the Daily Union has a new publisher.  Stories about that chain publisher show that (so far) it has changed little at its papers.  A sale of some kind, to someone, is no surprise.  The new publisher has a string of small-town papers, and no sign of a strategy for better reasoning or better writing at any of them. Even practically, they’ve no unified look to any of the publications purchased over the last few years, and no compelling digital strategy for them.

(The patriarch of the family is reportedly a billboard magnate and Trump supporter, but the papers acquired are mostly stumbling and ineffectual, with no evidence that anyone on staff could make Trumpism appear other than it is.)

These are troubled times for small, rural communities, and anyone taking over a publication in them with high hopes of quick success is deluded.

The day should begin not with grand expectations but with a diligent commitment to good reasoning and good writing, in the service of good principles.  Officials and notables in these small places are mostly – but not always – situationally motivated, and that’s among the worst motivations.

One should hold to something bigger than the mutual back-patting of a few middling cronies. There are important ideas (of reasoning, politics & economics, law, history, philosophy, and conscience) to advance and defend.  One begins each day with The Better Approach of the Dark-Horse Underdog.

The Daily Union has a new publisher?

No, it has a new old publisher.

Daily Bread for 12.4.18

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of thirty-one.  Sunrise is 7:09 AM and sunset 4:21 PM, for 9h 11m 23s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 7.6% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Common Council meets at 6:30 PM.

On this day in 1864, the Wisconsin 10th Light Artillery fights in the Battle of Waynesborough, Georgia.

 

 

Recommended for reading in full:

  Justin Glawe reports Facebook Lets Users Post About Killing Immigrants and Minorities:

Facebook users freely post about killing immigrants, minorities, and public figures in spite of the company’s terms of service that clearly prohibit threats of violence and hate speech.

The company just two weeks ago touted new technology it says detects 52 percent of hate speech before anyone reports it. (Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg claimed the technology caught 90 percent of pro-ISIS and al Qaeda content.) Yet that technology didn’t catch more than 100 instances in the last six months of Facebook users advocating to shoot or kill others, according to a Daily Beast review.

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“Just shoot them as they cross. Ammo is cheaper than barbed wire,” wrote a police officer in Oklahoma.

“Just shoot them,” wrote a Maine man wearing a Make America Great Again hat in his profile picture. “Line up a few dead ones as well,” added the safety supervisor at the Maine Yankee Nuclear Power Plant.

Jennifer Rubin observes Trump’s not winning anything, anywhere:

This is what comes from nationalistic know-nothingism, from deploring the very institutions and relationships that have kept us from world war and spread prosperity since the end of the WWII. It’s what flows from a foreign policy that amounts to a series of discrete gestures to please his base (move the embassy to Jerusalem, get out of the JCPOA and Paris accord) but lacks an answer to the question that follows each of these moves: What next?

  Julia Davis writes Putin’s Media Roasts Trump: Russia ‘Should Spit’ on Him and the United States:

“Rossiya 1” news anchor Kirill Kleymenov pulled no punches, asserting that by canceling his G20 meeting with Vladimir Putin, “Donald Fredovych Trump” subjected the world to a roller coaster ride, everyone in the Trump administration needs tranquilizers, and Donald Trump himself could use a teleprompter—after all, he’s “pushing 80.” (Trump is 72.)

  Mike McIntire, Megan Twohey and Mark Mazzetti report How a Lawyer, a Felon and a Russian General Chased a Moscow Trump Tower Deal:

When Donald J. Trump took a run at building a tower in Moscow in the middle of his 2016 presidential campaign, it was the high point of a decades-long effort to plant the “Trump” flag there.

The role his former lawyer Michael D. Cohen played in the endeavor entered the spotlight again on Thursday after he pleaded guilty to misleading Congress. But the effort was led in large part by Felix Sater, a convicted felon and longtime business associate with deep ties to Russia.

 The Last Chess Shop in New York City:

Lifting Russian sanctions key to Trump deal exposed by Cohen

Rachel Maddow shows how the Trump Organization’s continued pursuit of a Trump Tower Moscow deal into the 2016 campaign, exposed by Michael Cohen this week, explains Donald Trump’s soft stance on sanctioning Russian entities, including the bank that would finance the Trump Tower deal.

Trump has survived dozens of political or financial acts that would have rightly ruined anyone else; he is in this way a master of maneuver, of actions at the moment.

The case against Trump and his ilk, however, is one of attrition, resting as it does on the crushing, inescapable weight of carefully accumulated evidence.

Daily Bread for 12.3.18

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will see morning flurries with a high of thirty-three.  Sunrise is 7:08 AM and sunset 4:21 PM, for 9h 12m 34s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 14.4% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Urban Forestry Commission is scheduled to meet at 4:30 PM.

On this day in 1947, Wisconsin’s first television station, WTMJ-TV, is established.

 

 

Recommended for reading in full:

  Craig Gilbert observes Wisconsin undergoes striking political shifts, even as it remains a ‘purple’ battleground:

The Democratic Party’s gains have occurred almost entirely in the Milwaukee and Madison media markets. In fact, they have occurred chiefly in four places: the city of Milwaukee, the suburbs of Milwaukee, the city of Madison, and the suburbs of Madison.

In these four areas combined, Democrats saw a net gain of nearly 130,000 votes from the 50-50 elections of 2000/2004 to the 50-50 elections of 2016/2018. That’s a big number. It’s the equivalent of 4 percentage points or more in a major statewide race

Pema Levy writes Why Has It Taken California So Long to Count Ballots? Because It Actually Wants Every Vote to Count:

In reality, it takes a long time for California to count votes because the state—unlike most others—makes sure to count every legitimate voter’s ballot.

California’s approach to election administration is to accept and count as many ballots as possible, including late-arriving absentee ballots and provisional ballots, even if it takes weeks to determine a winner. This stands in stark contrast states like F

Florida, which flew through a preliminary count and two recounts and then certified its results within 14 days of the election—all before [California Democrat TJ] Cox even pulled ahead in his race.

  Jonathan Martin reports Despite Big House Losses, G.O.P. Shows No Signs of Course Correction:

President Trump has brushed aside questions about the loss of the chamber entirely, ridiculing losing incumbents by name, while continuing to demand Congress fund a border wall despite his party losing many of their most diverse districts. Unlike their Democratic counterparts, Republicans swiftly elevated their existing slate of leaders with little debate, signaling a continuation of their existing political strategy.

And neither Speaker Paul D. Ryan nor Representative Kevin McCarthy, the incoming minority leader, have stepped forward to confront why the party’s once-loyal base of suburban supporters abandoned it — and what can be done to win them back.

Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt report Intercepts Solidify C.I.A. Assessment That Saudi Prince Ordered Khashoggi Killing:

The C.I.A. has evidence that Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, communicated repeatedly with a key aide around the time that a team believed to have been under the aide’s command assassinated Jamal Khashoggi, according to former officials familiar with the intelligence.

  What’s Up for December 2018:

Daily Bread for 12.2.18

Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will see a mix of rain and light snow, with a high of thirty-nine.  Sunrise is 7:07 AM and sunset 4:21 PM, for 9h 13m 49s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 22.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

 

On this day in 1804, Napoleon confirms his dictatorial ambitions when he crowns himself Emperor of the French, placing a crown on his own head.

 

Recommended for reading in full:

  Sharon LaFraniere reports Mueller Exposes the Culture of Lying That Surrounds Trump:

Paul Manafort and Rick Gates, former senior Trump campaign officials, lied to cover up financial fraud. George Papadopoulos, a former Trump campaign aide, lied in hopes of landing an administration job. And Michael T. Flynn, another adviser, lied about his interactions with a Russian official and about other matters for reasons that remain unclear.

If the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, has proved anything in his 18-month-long investigation — besides how intensely Russia meddled in an American presidential election — it is that Mr. Trump surrounded himself throughout 2016 and early 2017 with people to whom lying seemed to be second nature.

Marc Fisher observes Trump borrows his rhetoric — and his view of power — from the mob:

An affinity for mobsters and their rhetoric has been a consistent thread through Trump’s adult life. From his early professional mentor, the New York lawyer and power broker Roy Cohn , to his many years of dealing with mob-connected union and construction industry bosses, Trump has formed close alliances with renegades and rogues who sometimes ended up on the wrong side of the law. He’s long learned from and looked up to tough, street-smart guys who didn’t mind breaking some rules to get things done. Trump also admires mobsters’ no-nonsense language and bais for action; he cites “The Godfather” and “Goodfellas” among his favorite movies.

  Matt Viser and Michael Scherer report Trump-led GOP grows increasingly tolerant of racially divisive politics:

The GOP’s challenge came into focus earlier this week when Rep. Mia Love (R-Utah), the only black female Republican in Congress, delivered a scathing rebuke to her party during a concession speech after learning she had come up short in her reelection bid following a drawn-out process of vote counting.

….

“This election experience and these comments shines a spotlight on the problems Washington politicians have with minorities and black Americans — it’s transactional. It’s not personal,” Love said.

The National Resources Defense Council reports In a Blow to Marine Life, Trump Administration Greenlights Seismic Blasting in Atlantic:

The National Marine Fisheries Service’s five new permits, or Incidental Harassment Authorizations, will allow airgun blasting for one year in large undersea areas off the Atlantic coast. The blasts are as loud as dynamite and fired every 10 seconds for weeks, sometimes months. Blanketing the ocean, the noise disrupts the vital behaviors of marine life, including finding food, selecting mates, avoiding predators, and navigating.

  The Sweetest Market in the World: