Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will see scattered showers with a high of seventy-two.  Sunrise is 6:28 AM and sunset 7:14 PM, for 12h 46m 09s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing gibbous with 81.2% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Planning Commission meets at 6 PM and the Whitewater Unified School Board at 7 PM. 

On this day in 1956, Elvis Presley first appears on the Ed Sullivan Show.

Recommended for reading in full:

David Daley writes of The Secret Files of the Master of Modern Republican Gerrymandering:

Thomas Hofeller preached secrecy as he remapped American politics from the shadows. The Republican Party operative, known as the master of the modern gerrymander, trained other G.O.P. operatives and legislators nationwide to secure their computer networks, guard access to their maps, and never send e-mails that they didn’t want to see published by the news media. In training sessions for state legislators and junior line drawers, he used a PowerPoint presentation that urged them to “avoid recklessness” and “always be discreet,” and warned that “emails are the tool of the devil.”

Hofeller did not follow his own advice. Before his death, in August, 2018, he saved at least seventy thousand files and several years of e-mails. A review of those records and e-mails—which were recently obtained first by The New Yorker—raises new questions about whether Hofeller unconstitutionally used race data to draw North Carolina’s congressional districts, in 2016. They also suggest that Hofeller was deeply involved in G.O.P. mapmaking nationwide, and include new trails for more potential lawsuits challenging Hofeller’s work, similar to the one on Wednesday which led to the overturning of his state legislative maps in North Carolina.

Hofeller’s files include dozens of intensely detailed studies of North Carolina college students, broken down by race and cross-referenced against the state driver’s-license files to determine whether these students likely possessed the proper I.D. to vote. The studies are dated 2014 and 2015, the years before Hofeller helped Republicans in the state redraw its congressional districts in ways that voting-rights groups said discriminated on the basis of race. North Carolina Republicans said that the maps discriminated based on partisanship but not race. Hofeller’s hard drive also retained a map of North Carolina’s 2017 state judicial gerrymander, with an overlay of the black voting-age population by district, suggesting that these maps—which are currently at the center of a protracted legal battle—might also be a racial gerrymander.

Riccardo Torres reports Louis Woo, a top Foxconn exec, stepping down to address ‘some personal matters’:

Foxconn executive Louis Woo has “relinquished his project responsibilities to focus on addressing some personal matters,” the company confirmed to The Journal Times.

Woo has been one of the major faces for the Foxconn Technology Group in Wisconsin and its development in Mount Pleasant. Woo also served as a special assistant to Foxconn founder and former Chairman Terry Gou before Gou decided to step down from the day-to-day operations to run what ended up being an unsuccessful campaign to become president of Taiwan.

Apple’s Secret Keynote Formula, Explained:

Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will see occasional showers with a high of sixty-six.  Sunrise is 6:27 AM and sunset 7:16 PM, for 12h 48m 59s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing gibbous with 73.7% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1966, NBC broadcasts The Man Trap, the first broadcast episode of the first season of Star Trek on NBC: “The Enterprise visits planet M-113 for a routine medical inspection of the husband-wife archaeological team stationed there, but the crew finds that the wife has been replaced by a deadly, shape-shifting creature.”

Recommended for reading in full:

Jason Lange and P.J. Huffstutter report Farm loan delinquencies surge in U.S. election battleground Wisconsin:

The share of farm loans that are long past-due rose to 2.9% at community banks in Wisconsin as of June 30, the highest rate in comparable records that go back to 2001, according to a Reuters analysis of loan delinquency data published by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

While the number of seriously delinquent farm loans is rising nationwide, the noncurrent rate has more than doubled at Wisconsin’s community banks since Trump took office in January 2017. It now stands higher than in any other of the top 10 U.S. farm states as measured in production – a list that includes California, Iowa and Texas.

Craig Gilbert reports In battleground Wisconsin, views of the economy aren’t as rosy as they used to be:

In more than 50 surveys since the beginning of 2012, Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin has asked Wisconsin voters whether they expect the economy to get better, worse or stay the same “over the next year.”

In every survey during the Obama presidency, more voters said “better” than “worse.” That remained true during the first two years of the Trump presidency.

But in two of the three Wisconsin polls that Marquette has done in 2019, more voters have said “worse” than “better.”

In short, public expectations about the economy are darker this year than they have been at any time since at least 2011.  And that’s not based on just one survey; it is based on the yearly averages of 52 surveys Marquette has done from 2012 to 2019.

This finding is also consistent with national trends. In August, a widely followed index of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan registered its biggest monthly drop since 2012.

Jennifer Rubin writes of Trump’s ‘tell’ on the economy:

Moreover, Trump’s tax cuts were spun on the basis that they would permanently hike business investment, raise workers’ wages by $4,000 and bring on a new era of more than 3 percent growth. That hasn’t happened. Rattner wrote: “In fact, during the second quarter, new investment fell for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2015. As the 2020 election season continues to unfold, Americans may be surprised to learn that the rate of investment under Mr. Trump — 3.9% — is actually lower than under President Obama (5.7%) after the nation’s economy began to recover in 2010.”

What Your School Lunch Might Have Looked Like in 1996:

Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be mostly sunny with a high of seventy-five.  Sunrise is 6:26 AM and sunset 7:18 PM, for 12h 51m 49s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing gibbous with 63.9% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1977, Wisconsin holds a judicial recall election:

Dane County citizens voted Judge Archie Simonson out of office. Simonson called rape a normal male reaction to provocative female attire and modern society’s permissive attitude toward sex. He made this statment while explaining why he sentenced a 15-year-old to only one year of probation for raping a 16-year-old girl. After the recall election, Simonson was replaced by Moria Krueger, the first woman judge elected in Dane County history.

Recommended for reading in full:

Molly Beck reports Scott Walker hits the airwaves to promote his son Matt’s potential congressional run:

Former Gov. Scott Walker is jumping back into Wisconsin politics — this time to promote his 25-year-old son’s potential candidacy for Congress.

Matt Walker, Walker’s oldest son, is one of 10 potential candidates considering running to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner in the 5th Congressional District, a conservative stronghold.

“I think in particular what intrigues him is he feels frustrated that (U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) somehow nationally is reflective of his generation,” Scott Walker said in an appearance on WISN’s “UpFront.” “He’s 25 and he feels there needs to be a counter-voice to that.”

Ocasio-Cortez is a 29-year-old freshman congresswoman from New York — and the youngest female to serve in Congress — who the former Republican governor frequently criticizes over her Democratic Socialist views.

(Oh, brother.  The gerrymandered Fifth Congressional District stretches all the way down to Whitewater.  Walker says his son wants to be a counter-voice to AOC, but the son isn’t using his voice – his father’s the one talking. If Matt Walker wants to take on Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, then he’s going to have to speak & stand on his own without papa’s help.  This libertarian does not – and never will – support AOC’s fundamentally misguided confidence in government action.  And yet, and yet – it is clear that AOC can speak and write on her own.  She’s standing on her own feet.  It’s always worth reminding of Scott Walker’s Three Fundamental Failures: Employment, Income, and Poverty.)

Jobs Data Looks Like a Stagflation Report, Economist Torsten Slok Observes:

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, and Irina Novoselsky, chief executive officer at CareerBuilder, examine the U.S. August jobs report. They speak on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”

Who Invented the Pitcher’s Mound?:

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be mostly sunny with a high of seventy-three.  Sunrise is 6:25 AM and sunset 7:20 PM, for 12h 54m 40s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing gibbous with 53.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1781, traitor Benedict Arnold orders the British soldiers under his command to burn New London, Connecticut.

Recommended for reading in full:

Pollster Nate Silver explains How To Handle An Outlier Poll:

To a first approximation, the best advice is to toss it into the average. Definitely do not assume that it’s the new normal. You don’t need to read dramatically headlined newspaper articles and watch breathless cable news segments about it. In a race with many polls, any one poll should rarely make all that much news. But you shouldn’t “throw out” the poll either. Instead, it should incrementally affect your priors. In the case of the Monmouth poll last week, for instance, you shouldn’t have assumed that the race had suddenly become a three-way tie, but you should have inched up your estimate of how well Sanders and Warren were doing compared with Biden.

For extra credit, pay attention to sample size. The Monmouth poll surveyed only 298 Democratic voters, which is small even by the standards of primary polls (which often survey fewer voters than general election polls do).

….

If a poll shows a significant change in the race, you should tend to presume it’s an outlier unless it’s precipitated by a major news or campaign event.

Corollary: You should be much more open to the possibility that a poll reflects a real change if it’s among the first polls following a major news or campaign event.

What do I mean by a “major” news or campaign event? Some fairly specific types of things. When I made you pinky swear earlier, I was asking you to stick precisely to this list:

1. Debates.
2. Candidates entering or exiting the race, or clinching their nominations.
3. Primary and caucus results (e.g., the Iowa caucuses occur and that has knockoff effects on the next set of states).
4. The conventions.
5. The announcement of vice presidential candidates.
6. The final week of the campaign.
7. Spectacular, blockbuster news events that dominate the news cycle for a week or more. (There generally are only one or two of these per campaign cycle, if that many.)

Nell Greenfieldboyce reports Squirrels Eavesdrop On Birds, Researchers Say:

Squirrels eavesdrop on the casual chitchat of birds to figure out when it’s safe enough to be out in the open and foraging for food.

Researchers have found that a squirrel becomes incredibly vigilant when it hears the shriek of a red-tailed hawk, but it will relax and resume its food-seeking behavior more quickly if the predator’s call is immediately followed by the easygoing tweets of unconcerned birds.

Inside the World of Gourmet Lab Meat:

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of seventy-three.  Sunrise is 6:24 AM and sunset 7:22 PM, for 12h 57m 29s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 43.1% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Landmarks Commission meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 1774, the First Continental Congress convenes.

Recommended for reading in full:

Patrick Marley reports An $8 million military project in Wisconsin is losing out to help fund Trump’s border wall:

Wisconsin will forgo $8 million in military spending to help pay for a wall along Mexico’s border.

President Donald Trump’s administration is diverting $3.6 billion from military projects for the wall. According to a document posted online by the Washington Post, $8 million of it will come from a planned small arms range at Truax Field in Madison.

….

“President Trump promised Mexico would pay for his border wall and that’s clearly not true because he is taking money from our military to pay for it,” Sen. Tammy Baldwin said in a statement.

Tory Newmyer writes Trump’s trade war is sinking his promise to revive American manufacturing:

In another sign the president’s crusade against China is hurting the U.S. economy, factory activity shrank in August for the first time in three years, according to a new survey.  

The measures the Institute for Supply Management uses for domestic manufacturing’s health fell nearly across the board. New orders for manufactured goods dropped for the second month in a row to a level not seen since late 2009; production and employment contracted for the first time in three years. Another reporton manufacturing activity — from IHS Markit, also released Tuesday — confirmed the findings, showing the weakest manufacturing activity in nearly a decade.

….

The slowdown in American manufacturing comes as the sector has hit a skid worldwide, a development dating to last year that has grown worse as trade tensions have intensified. But the ISM survey left little doubt that the president’s tariff fight is weighing on manufacturers. Four of 10 respondents that the survey quoted invoked the trade war as a top concern (“While business is strong, there is an undercurrent of fear and alarm regarding the trade wars and a potential recession,” one respondent working in chemical products said.)

(Emphasis in original.)

Mike Allen writes Trump allies raise money to target reporters:

President Trump’s political allies are trying to raise at least $2 million to investigate reporters and editors of the New York Times, Washington Post and other outlets, according to a 3-page fundraising pitch reviewed by Axios.

• The group claims it will slip damaging information about reporters and editors to “friendly media outlets,” such as Breitbart, and traditional media, if possible.
• People involved in raising the funds include GOP consultant Arthur Schwartz and the “loose network” that the NY Times reported last week is targeting journalists. The operations are to be run by undisclosed others.

The prospectus for the new project says it’s “targeting the people producing the news.”

Veteran-centered program saving lives through the power of opportunity:

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of seventy.  Sunrise is 6:23 AM and sunset 7:23 PM, for 13h 00m 19s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 32.4% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1886, Apache leader Geronimo surrenders at Skeleton Canyon, Arizona.

Recommended for reading in full:

Cary Spivak reports A nonprofit that’s supposed to promote dairy pays its leaders millions — while the farmers who fund it are going out of business:

As the number of dairy farms nationwide has plummeted by nearly 20,000 over the past decade, there’s one corner of the industry doing just fine:

The top executives at Dairy Management Inc., who are paid from farmers’ milk checks.

The Illinois-based nonprofit is charged with promoting milk, cheese and other products — spending nearly $160 million a year collected through federally-mandated payments from dairy farmers.

In 2017, a year in which 503 dairy farms closed in Wisconsin and 1,600 were shuttered nationwide, IRS records show 10 executives at the organization were paid more than $8 million — an average of more than $800,000 each.

Pay for Thomas Gallagher, the group’s CEO, has topped $1 million three times from 2013 to 2017, the most recent year for which data is available, a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel investigation into spending by the group found. His compensation included access to first-class travel and money to cover part of his taxes.

Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Thomas Vilsack, the group’s executive vice president, was paid $800,557 in 2017.

David Sanger and William Broad report North Korea Missile Tests, ‘Very Standard’ to Trump, Show Signs of Advancing Arsenal:

As North Korea fired off a series of missiles in recent months — at least 18 since May — President Trump has repeatedly dismissed their importance as short-range and “very standard” tests. And although he has conceded “there may be a United Nations violation,” the president says any concerns are overblown.

Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, Mr. Trump explained recently, just “likes testing missiles.”

Now, American intelligence officials and outside experts have come to a far different conclusion: that the launchings downplayed by Mr. Trump, including two late last month, have allowed Mr. Kim to test missiles with greater range and maneuverability that could overwhelm American defenses in the region.

Japan’s defense minister, Takeshi Iwaya, told reporters in Tokyo last week that the irregular trajectories of the most recent tests were more evidence of a program designed to defeat the defenses Japan has deployed, with American technology, at sea and on shore.

 Tent Courthouses Along the Border:

Tent courthouses are the administration’s latest move in its “Remain in Mexico” policy, forcing asylum seekers to wait in one of Mexico’s most dangerous states until their hearings. We track the tents’ expansion through satellite imagery — and explain how they could make the asylum process even harder.